9. PLAY BASED ON PROBABILITY ------------------------- (i) NORTH S:xx 3NT by S: H:AQx -------------------- D:AQK C:AKQxx After taking S in third round, question -------------- is to decide immediately as there is WEST |||||||||||||| EAST no other entry, whether to play for S: |||||||||||||| S: C 3-3 break which is 36% with 6 cards H: |||||||||||||| H: out or H finesse which is 50% chance. D: |||||||||||||| D: Therefore, take H finesse. C: |||||||||||||| C: -------------- SOUTH (D) S:Axx H:xxxx D:xxxx C:xx (ii) NORTH S:xx 3NT by S: Lead S H:xxxxx ---------------- D:Kx C:xxxx Here also, playing for H fineese is better -------------- than for playing for D breaking 3-3. WEST |||||||||||||| EAST S: |||||||||||||| S: H: |||||||||||||| H: D: |||||||||||||| D: C: |||||||||||||| C: -------------- SOUTH (D) S:Ax H:AQx D:AQxxx C:AKQ (iii) NORTH S:xx 3NT by S: Lead S H:xxxx ----------------- D:Kxx C:xxxx Here there is no problem of entry. Therefore -------------- test D first by playing AQ and then DK and WEST |||||||||||||| EAST if they don't break 3-3, there is no S: |||||||||||||| S: choice but to finesse H. H: |||||||||||||| H: D: |||||||||||||| D: C: |||||||||||||| C: -------------- SOUTH (D) S:Axx H:AQx D:AQxx C:AKQ (iv) AKJx -------------- Five cards are likely to break 3-2, 68% of the time | N | and Q is likely to be Qxx 40% of the time. |W E| Therefore play for finesse and not for a drop | S | -------------- xxxx (v) NORTH S:Axxx 4H by S: Lead SK H:Q109 ---------------- D:xxx C:Qxx There are 3 D losers and C may be loser if -------------- it does not break 3-3(36%) compared to 4-2(48%) WEST |||||||||||||| EAST But in H there are only 5 cards out and they S:KQJx |||||||||||||| S:xxxx are likely to break 3-2, 68% of the time. H:xxx |||||||||||||| H:xx Trumps can be drawn out by dummy's Q109. D:Kxxx |||||||||||||| D:AQx Therefore, plan on making dummy good by ruffing C:xx |||||||||||||| C:J109x a S with HA, entering dummy with H9, ruffing -------------- another S with HK, entering dummy with H10 and SOUTH (D) ruffing last S with HJ. Now enter dummy with CQ S:x and take out last trump with HQ. If CQ was also H:AKJxx with S, then play two trumps and then 3 C's D:xxx hoping that opponent holding doubleton C also C:AKxx has doubleton H and can't ruff. (vi) NORTH S:Qxx 6C by S: Lead S H:x --------------- D:KJ1098 C:Q873 With 7 cards out in H, K is likely to be Kxxx. -------------- Therefore don't hope for K to drop in third WEST |||||||||||||| EAST round. Instead, DA and Q are likely to be split S:xxx |||||||||||||| S:J10xx between E and W which is 50% chance. Therefore, H:KJxxx |||||||||||||| H:xx take SQ and pull out K. If E does not cover D:xxxx |||||||||||||| D:AQxx let it run and discard a H. Next time again C:6 |||||||||||||| C:J94 lead DJ, thus making the dummy good. -------------- SOUTH (D) S:AKx H:AQ10xx D:--- C:AK1052 (vii) NORTH S:xxx 3NT by S: Lead S H:AQ10x ---------------- D:Axx C:Kxx You have two lines of play. Finesse DQ and -------------- if that works, you have 1S, 1H, 5D and 2C=9 WEST |||||||||||||| EAST tricks. This is 50% chance. Second line of S:Q10xxx|||||||||||||| S:KJx play is finesse H and if it works you have H:xxx |||||||||||||| H:Kxx 1S, 4H, 2D, 2C=9 tricks which is again 50% D:Qx |||||||||||||| D:10xx chance. But DQx dropping on Ak is 28% and C:Qxx |||||||||||||| C:J10xx combined with H finesse (50%), chances become -------------- 78%. Therefore, play DAK and if Q does not SOUTH (D) drop then finesse H. S:Ax H:J9x D:KJxxx C:Axx (viii) NORTH S:xx 3NT by S: lead H H:Kx ---------------- D:A10863 C:J9xx There is only one entry HK for D to be made -------------- good. D 3-3 break is only 36% chance. You WEST |||||||||||||| EAST combine this chance with additional 18% chance S:x |||||||||||||| S:QJ9xx of 9 or J being doubleton i.e. 54%. Therefore, H:Qxxxx |||||||||||||| H:J10x take HA, play DKQ overtaking with A and D:J7xx |||||||||||||| D:9x playing D10. If D's are 3-3, you still get 4D, C:K108 |||||||||||||| C:Qx 2S, 2H and 1C=9 by conceding DJ if it does -------------- not drop. SOUTH (D) S:AKxx H:Axx D:KQ C:Axxx (ix) NORTH S:xxx 3NT by S: Lead S H:Q4 ---------------- D:KJ10x C:A9xx You take SA third round. Now in C's 6 cards -------------- are out and they are likely to break 3-3 WEST |||||||||||||| EAST only 36% of the time. You have 1S, 1H, 4D and S:KJxxx |||||||||||||| S:Qx 2C = 8 tricks. As C's are likely to break H:J87 |||||||||||||| H:K632 4-2, you may not be likely to develop a trick D:xxx |||||||||||||| D:xxx in C's. But HJ with W and K with E is 50% C:J8 |||||||||||||| C:Q10xx chance. Therefore, play H10 and if W does -------------- not cover, let it run. If W covers, covered SOUTH (D) by Q and E takes K, you get 2H tricks for S:Axx total of 9 tricks. H:A1095 D:AQx C:Kxx (x) NORTH S:Kx 3NT by S: Lead S H:xxx ---------------- D:Axxxx C:AJx A taken by E and S returned. If D's breaks -------------- 3-3, you have 2S, 1H, 4D and 2C=9 but WEST |||||||||||||| EAST chances of D break are only 30%. Chances of S:Jxxxx |||||||||||||| S:Axx H honors being split are 52%. Therefore, H:Kxx |||||||||||||| H:Qxx finesse H's twice and you get 2S, 3H, 2D D:Jx |||||||||||||| D:Q10xx and 2C = 9 tricks. C:xxx |||||||||||||| C:Q10x -------------- SOUTH (D) S:Q10x H:AJ109 D:Kx C:Kxxx (xi) NORTH S:KQ10x 7S by S: Lead DK H:AJxx ---------------- D:Ax C:xxx You have to decide whether to finesse HQ or -------------- playing for HQ dropping on third round. WEST |||||||||||||| EAST Finesse has 50% chance while Q dropping in S:xx |||||||||||||| S:x third round is less as Q is likely to be with H:Qxxx |||||||||||||| H:xxx hand holding more H's. Therefore, finesse is D:KQJx |||||||||||||| D:xxxxx the right play. C:xxx |||||||||||||| C:xxxx -------------- SOUTH (D) S:AJ9xxx H:Kx D:xx C:AKQ (xii) NORTH S:Axxx 4H by S: Lead SQ H:J8x ---------------- D:xxxx C:xx You take SA and have to decide whether to -------------- take H or C finesse, there being no other WEST |||||||||||||| EAST entry in dummy. 4 H's are out. chances of S:QJ10x |||||||||||||| S:xx 2-2 break are 40% and 3-1 break are 50%. H:9 |||||||||||||| H:K107 In C's, finesse has a 50% chance. Therefore, D:AJ109 |||||||||||||| D:xxx you should finesse C's. C:Jxxx |||||||||||||| C:Kxxxx -------------- SOUTH (D) S:Kxx H:AQ6xxx D:KQ C:AQ (xiii) NORTH S:xxx 4S by S: Lead CJ H:Axx ---------------- D:xxxx C:Axx 2C's and 1H are losers, but chances of H -------------- breaking 3-3 are only 36% and that of WEST |||||||||||||| EAST breaking 4-2 are 48%. S should be prepared S:xxx |||||||||||||| S:xx to ruff fourth H and hope that the opponent H:Q109x |||||||||||||| H:Jx holding doubleton Hs also had a doubleton D:Qxx |||||||||||||| D:KJxxx S. Therefore, take CA, play only 1S i.e. A C:J10x |||||||||||||| C:KQxx and duck a low H. E-W cash 2C's and exit -------------- with a D. Now play SK and HAK. If H breaks SOUTH (D) 3-3, good and well. If not, you still make S:AKQJx the contract as E who had a doubleton H also H:Kxxx had a doubleton S and can't ruff or over ruff. D:A C:xxx (xiv) NORTH S:xxxx 6H by S: Lead SK H:K10xx ---------------- D:KJ8x C:x Now contract depends on D or C finesse. -------------- i.e. 50%. However if DQ is doubleton in WEST |||||||||||||| EAST either hand, it is 18% and a C finesse is S:KQJx |||||||||||||| S:A10xx 50% i.e. 68% combined. Therefore, play H:---- |||||||||||||| H:xxx DAK and if Q does not drop, finesse CQ. D:xxxx |||||||||||||| D:Qx C:xxxxx |||||||||||||| C:Qxxx -------------- SOUTH (D) S:x H:AQJ9xx D:A109 C:AKJ (xv) NORTH S:KQJx 4H by S: Lead low C H:Kxx ------------------- D:AQx C:xxx E takes A and backs a C to W's K who -------------- switches to D. You have to decide whether WEST |||||||||||||| EAST to finesse D or not. If H's break 2-2, there S:xxxx |||||||||||||| S:xx is no problem, but if H is a loser, you have H:Qxx |||||||||||||| H:J to decide whether to finesse Ds or not = 50% D:10xx |||||||||||||| D:Kxxxx chance. A D can go on S's. Chances of S C:Kxx |||||||||||||| C:AQ10xx breaking 3-3 are only 36% and 4-2 are 48% -------------- i.e 24% on either side. If Hs don't break SOUTH (D) and there is a loser in H's, you can leave S:A10x 1H with opponent after playing HAK and then H:A109xxx run S's. If S's are 3-3, 36% chance, you D:Jx can play 4th S discarding a D loser. If they C:Jx are 4-2, 24% chance is of the person holding the H also holds 4 carder S. i.e. chances become 36 + 24 = 60% as against a simple D finesse of 50%. Therefore, take DA, HAK and run S. (Played by Ace Mike Lawrence) (xvi) NORTH S:AJxx 6H by S: Lead low S H:9x ------------------- D:Ax C:AJxxx You take SA, losing S can go on C if -------------- finesse comes right. You have to decide WEST |||||||||||||| EAST how to play H's. Qx is only 28% chance and S:Qxx |||||||||||||| S:K109x Qxx 40% chance. Noemally therefore, HQ is H:Qxx |||||||||||||| H:xx to be finessed. CQ finesse is 50%, but with D:xxx |||||||||||||| D:Jxxxx danger of ruff in 2nd or 3rd round, it is C:Q10xx |||||||||||||| C:xx only 43% chance. Therefore 28 + 43=71% -------------- chance if HAK is played straight for Qx SOUTH (D) dropping or if not dropping then C finesse S:xx is a better chance than only C finesse. H:AKJ10xx Play HAK and if Q does not drop, finesse CQ. D:KQx (Played by Ace Goldman) C:Kx