guardian.co.uk

The cabinet secretary, Gus O'Donnell, stated publicly, however, that he himself had taken legal advice and had decided that, although Hunt had made previous public statements sympathetic to the bid: "I am satisfied that those statements do not amount to a pre-judgment of the case."

Hunt's former aide, Adam Smith, was initially reluctant to concede that the culture secretary had backed the Murdoch bid from the outset. Under persistent questioning from Jay, he eventually admitted, however, that Hunt's "personal view" was in fact favourable to the bid.

Deputy prime minister Nick Clegg suggested earlier this week that the coalition plans to expand its policy of credit easing, using government guarantees to kickstart spending on infrastructure and housing to boost the economy. According to the ONS, construction output declined by 4.8% in the first three months of the year, after a 0.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2011, helping to explain the government's change of heart about pumping fresh cash into building projects.

"Over the past 18 months, the economy has experienced a mild contraction in output. This reflects global economic headwinds as well as domestic economic conditions such as the impact of continuing high rates of inflation in the UK," the ONS said.

With the extra bank holiday for the Queen's diamond jubilee expected to depress economic output in the second quarter of the year, as workers down tools and fire up their barbecues, analysts believe it will be autumn at the earliest before the UK emerges from recession.

However, as Sir Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, has stressed, events in the eurozone, where leaders are battling to contain the impact of the political paralysis in Greece, present a major risk to the outlook in the weeks ahead.

David Miles, the one member of the Bank's monetary policy committee (MPC) to vote for further quantitative easing this month, said: "No one on the MPC feels comfortable with the prolonged and substantial overshoot of inflation above its target level. But that does not mean bringing inflation back to target very rapidly is the best thing to do.

"In a situation where weak demand is likely to be having a negative impact upon productive capacity, the cost of having a tighter monetary policy to bring inflation back to target fast will be some long-lasting damage to incomes."

Howard Archer, of consultancy IHS Global Insight, described the growth figures as "very disappointing".

There is no sign whatsoever of the son setting himself up as a young pretender against the father but, should he be tempted, the poll suggests he could count on solid support among younger voters, Labour supporters and the C2DE social grades which sit at the bottom of the National Statistics pyramid. An outright majority of 50% of each of these groups indicate a preference for a premature coronation of William V.

The Queen continues to retain her popularity. According to Ipsos Mori data from the 1980s and 90s, the person who most often rivalled her ratings was Diana, a finding that may excite the wilder conspiracy theorists. But in this, as in all matters concerning the length of a reign which stretches back to the very infancy of British polling, we are dependent on occasional attitudinal snapshots rather than the sort of month-in-month-out series available on voting intention.

American admiration

The earliest data which the Guardian could track down was not about British attitudes but American ones, just three months after the coronation in February 1953. The vast majority of respondents volunteered descriptions such as "charming" and "wonderful". A mere 6% made negative remarks about monarchs in general, and just 1% ventured anything negative about the woman herself. A few years later in a 1957 Gallup poll, 83% of Americans rated her to some degree favourably, against just 7% who leant the other way. Her stateside standing has rarely diminished, and she is by some margin the woman who has most often ranked on Gallup's annual top 10 of people Americans admire.

Closer to home, there is little data from before the 1960s. One nugget we do have from before the Elizabethan age is from Gallup in 1946. Asked whom they most admired, 24% of voters volunteered Winston Churchill, while reigning monarch George VI and his Queen languished behind on 3%. That put them on the same level as Joseph Stalin and below Clement Attlee, Field Marshal Montgomery, George Bernard Shaw.

The questions are irregular and often inconsistently framed, but when set against this sepia snapshot about the old king, the data we have strongly suggests the Queen has consistently been more popular than her father.

The oldest substantial information the Guardian could find about British attitudes was from the British Election Study, which got going a decade into the Queen's reign, just before the 1964 election which brought Labour's Harold Wilson to power.

It asked about whether people felt the monarchy was very, quite or not at all important. Support for the Queen was remarkably resilient throughout the 1960s, with about 60% rating the monarchy as very important and about 15% who said it was of no importance. Only in 1969 did the anti-royal number briefly rise, to a still underwhelming 27%.

A slightly more personal test of the Queen's popularity, perhaps, is the public's take on whether or not she deserved a pay rise. In 1969, Gallup found 46% felt she deserved a pay rise. By 1971, the same company found 57% were ready to double her allowance to an annual £1m, which was a good deal more then than today.

Around the same time, we get the first tests of the idea of abolishing the crown entirely and making the UK a republic. In 1969, Gallup found that 18% preferred that option. The silver jubilee, the Sex Pistols, Diana and the golden jubilee all came and went without permanently altering that figure. In the week of the Queen's 50th anniversary on the throne, in June 2002, an Ipsos Mori poll found 19% would prefer a republic. It asked the same question more than 20 times in the 1990s and 2000s and each time found the republican minority within three points of that 19% figure. Only in its most recent survey, conducted amid a mood of respect for the octogenarian woman and a sexagenarian monarch, does it dip to 13%.

Swing to indifference

We can track rather more of the reign if we switch to a better off/worse off without the royals question, of the sort used in our surveyon Thursday. Ipsos Mori asked that question throughout the 1980s and 1990s and, as fairytale weddings gave way to the divorces of Charles and Andrew, there was a steady swing away from the steadfast royalist "worse off" vote to a position of indifference. The "indifferents" fleetingly overtook the "worse offs" in the Queen's "annus horribilis" of 1992 (when flames at Windsor Castle followed rows about her tax-exempt status) and then again just before Diana's death. But in neither case did the hardline "better off without them" vote get enough traction to get beyond a fifth. In both cases, the royalists soon bounced back to a modest lead, even if they never quite got back to the scores of about 70% they had enjoyed in the mid-1980s.

From the late 1990s onwards, the ICM's own tracker, which forces a straight choice, has oscillated wildly, but never quite wildly enough to put the anti-royalists in the lead or even to get the margin down to single figures.

There was a bit of a monarchist moment in 1998 as the royals regained public affection after the traumas of Diana's death, with the "worse off without them" lead surging to 44% before then falling back to about 20%.

There was a brief boost from the golden jubilee in 2002, a brief dip (as on several polling indicators) in early 2005, before Charles's marriage to Camilla, a prospect which stirred some old demons but which the polling suggests also laid them to rest, because the royal position immediately strengthened after the event. The monarchy surged further after William's wedding last year, and now the gap has widened again.

The Queen's personal rating, measured as the difference between the proportion satisfied and the proportion dissatisfied with the way she is doing her job, has not been measured since 2006, but the established trend at that point was running strongly in her favour – the score was +78 percentage points.

To put that into context, our Guardian/ICM poll this week gave scores to David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg of -11, -12 and -27 respectively.

ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,002 adults aged 18 plus from 18 to 20 May 2012. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

While the Romney campaign is managing to make serious inroads into Obama's overall fundraising advantage, most of the extra firepower it is accumulating appears to be going towards traditional campaigning techniques. In particular, Romney's team, flanked by several well-funded partisan Super Pacs led by Karl Rove and the Koch brothers, are gearing themselves up to unleash a blitzkreig of negative TV ads on the American electorate.

Obama is also expected to devote most of his warchest to traditional TV advertising. But he has also set aside a substantial portion of the 2012 coffers for more innovative attempts to involve and engage online voters.

Already in the 2012 election cycle, the Obama For America team, headquartered in Chicago, has spent $19m on online advertising – more than the entire amount spent by Obama in this area in 2008. The interactive marketing news site ClickZ calculates that at current rates OFA will spend $35m on digital advertising by November, though that could prove to be an underestimate.

Obama's online advertising strategy is being masterminded by Andrew Bleeker and Nathaniel Lubin, who are veterans of Obama's first run on the White House four years ago. After 2008, Bleeker set up his own private consultancy, Bully Pulpit Interactive, where he was joined by Lubin who has now circled back to lead the on-the-ground work on online marketing in the Obama re-election HQ in Chicago.

Bleeker and Lubin have set out how they see the challenge for digital media in the 2012 presidential election in a new book of essays that explores the way that political campaigns are changing in the face of technological innovation. They predict in Margin of Victory , edited by Nathaniel Pearlman, that 2012 will "blow prior campaigns out of the water".

As more money and staff are devoted to online marketing, they say, the 2012 cycle will finally achieve the aspirations of previous campaigns. The authors identify three ways in which online advertising has the power to transform the battle.

First, messages can be targeted much more tightly than TV ads to core gropus of voters, reaching down they say to the level of the "zip code or even, in some cases, the individual level, bringing custom solutions to the table that will match the distinct messages to specific audiences."

Second, campaigns will this year move their online marketing away from desktop computers and on to cell phones. That will be particularly important in reaching certain demographics, such as Hispanic voters, who spend a disproportionate amount of their online time on mobile devices.

Third, online video advertising is going to be huge this year. Unlike TV advertising, which can only be targeted to a city or region, an online video can be served to a voter with his or her precise geolocation and behavioural interests, greatly enhancing the relevance and the impact of the message.

"The 2012 election is very likely to be incredibly tight. Winning messages are going to be the ones that cut through the clutter – not just with memorable creative work but alos by being tailored to key segments," Bleeker and Lubin write.

Social media is also going to be an important part of the jigsaw. Obama again has a massive headstart in this area, having already amassed more than 26.7m Facebook fans to Romney's 1.8m followers.

A comScore study of the uses of social media by the presidential campaigns highlights the value of social media as a way of amplifying the candidate's message. In January, for instance, Obama bought 800m online display ads at a cost of more than $4m.

In addition, though, comScore calculates, Obama leveraged an extra 66m display ad impressions as a result of Obama followers passing on messages to their friends.

In one case involving Mossbourne academy in Hackney, east London, which has been celebrated for its academic record, the school refused to admit an 11-year-old boy with cerebral palsy, arguing it would compromise other children's education and it already has a higher than average number of pupils with special needs. The London Oratory, a Catholic school in Fulham which became an academy last year, is also facing a special needs legal challenge.

The cases suggest academies may not have the same legal obligations to children with special needs as maintained schools. While parents of children with special needs have the right to appeal against a decision at any other school, lawyers are concerned that academies can turn them away with no recourse. The legal cases could have widespread implications as more than half of secondaries in England are now academies.

There are up to 30 cases of children with special needs who have been refused an academy place, according to Ipsea, the special needs advice service. Eight involve Mossbourne which was one of the first academies and has won praise from both Labour and the Tories for its pupils' achievement. After last year's A-level results, seven pupils from the school won places at Cambridge.

The Learning Trust, which manages education in Hackney, refused to name Mossbourne in the boy's statement, the document setting out a child's needs and the help they should receive, including the name of the school they will attend. Such statements are given to children with the most severe special needs and 2.7% of schoolchildren in England have them.

While he is academically gifted – he already has GCSE Maths A* – his condition can make him unsteady on his feet. It also affects his ability at practical tasks such as using a ruler.

The boy's mother, Sarah Creighton, said: "We said, 'In what way can you possibly say [he] is going to interfere with the other children's education?' He's top of the year in all his subjects, he's got GCSE Maths A* already, he's won the pan-Hackney debating challenge two years running, he's a prefect and a reading mentor at his school. Obviously, I'm his mother, and I'm very, very proud of him. But I think I'm justifiably very proud of him."

The family's lawyers say Mossbourne has refused to accept that the Sspecial educational needs tribunal – a court which hears school place appeals by parents of children with such needs – should hear the case. They say the school claimed it was not governed by legislation for state schools but only by its funding agreement with the education secretary.

The Learning Trust applied successfully to have the case struck out but the family has lodged an appeal to a higher court.

Elaine Maxwell, a partner at Maxwell Gillott solicitors, for the family, said: "The academy may have good grounds for refusing to take a particular child in an individual case, … but that should be an argument they make before a tribunal – they shouldn't have it struck out before they get there.

"When you get a school saying it's full, that's not an end to it. The child or his parents should be able to say: does our disadvantage outweigh the disadvantage to other children? There's a balancing act that has to be struck."

She added: "How are academies accountable? This has been inherent in academies from the beginning. If academies aren't bound by SEN provisions and the tribunal system, then the parents of a child with a statement have fewer rights than anyone else."

Mossbourne told the family their son's admission "would be incompatible with the efficient education of other pupils at the academy". A local authority can legally decline to name a school in a statement if the child's presence would have a negative impact on the education of existing pupils. This could mean, for example, reducing the level of pastoral care available to other children.

The academy said nearly 1,600 children applied for 200 places in its September 2012 intake. Of those, 53 have statements. Of the 53, 28 named Mossbourne as their first preference. Nationally, 21% of schoolchildren have some form of special needs but at Mossbourne the proportion in each year is 26%-28%.

The boy's family argue that his statement comes with funds that would help the school to provide for him.

Creighton said: "Part of me feels that this seems so blatantly wrong: that a school can say, 'These regulations set up to protect disabled people don't apply to us, so we don't have to live by them.' That seems so wrong, that anyone would be able to do that."

A spokesman for the Learning Trust said: "As a matter of policy we do not comment on cases of this nature. Depending on the terms of the funding agreement between an academy and the secretary of state, the academy may not have to admit a child even if the school is named in the child's statement."

The London Oratory case concerns an 11-year-old boy from Croydon. The school declined to be named in his statement, arguing too that it would compromise the "efficient education of other children."

Chris Barnett, lawyer for the family concerned and head of the education and disability law department at Levenes solicitors, said: "If it hadn't been an academy, the authority would have named it [in the statement]. Croydon's position seems to be that it doesn't accept the arguments the school has put forward, but they still won't name it. It seems to me that the LA [local authority] doesn't quite know how to deal with it because it's an academy."

A tribunal hearing in the London Oratory case is due next month.

The video, in which May says she believes that "marriage should be for everyone", was released on the day it emerged that David Cameron has decided to give his MPs a free vote on the government's plans to legalise gay marriage, thereby avoiding a showdown with Conservative colleagues, including some ministers, strongly opposed to the idea.

A free vote will allow MPs and ministers to vote according to their conscience rather than being directed by party whips. The shadow Commons leader, Angela Eagle, criticised the move, saying it now meant Cameron's "flagship policy on equal rights" would have to rely on Labour backing to become law.

The Home Office began a formal consultation on how civil marriage will be reformed in England and Wales earlier this year, but the proposals have proved controversial for some within Cameron's government, with the Northern Ireland secretary, Owen Paterson, being the first cabinet minister to state his opposition.

In a video for the Out4Marriage campaign, released on Thursday, May said she recognised the "strong views on both sides of this argument", and intended to listen to them in consultation. But the home secretary, who also serves as minister for women and equalities, went on: "I believe in marriage. I believe marriage is a really important institution; it's one of the most important institutions we have.

"Marriage binds us together, it brings stability, I think marriage makes us stronger. But I believe also in commitment and in fidelity in marriage, I think these are good things and we should enable them to flourish.

"That's why I believe if two people care for each other, if they love each other, if they want to commit to each other and spend the rest of their lives together then they should be able to get married and marriage should be for everyone and that's why I'm coming Out4Marriage."

The Out4Marriage campaign records YouTube videos with politicians, celebrities, religious leaders and members of the public explaining why they support changing the law. The campaign says it has so far secured the support of 10 Conservatives, including ministers Nick Herbert and Quentin Blunt, who are expected to take part in videos next week.

A spokesperson said it also has "a few more cabinet ministers" – both Liberal Democrat and Conservative – lined up for filming.

Mike Buonaiuto of Out4Marriage said the organisation was grateful May had given her "very significant backing" to the campaign.

Other supporters so far include Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, and the Liberal Democrat equalities minister, Lynne Featherstone, as well as Sir Richard Branson and girl group The Saturdays.

Cameron is personally supportive. A vote is unlikely to arise in the next year since a bill for the reform of civil marriage was not included in the Queen's speech earlier this month, but Downing Street stressed again this week the government's determination to get it onto the statute book before the end of the parliament.

The Commons leader, Sir George Young, confirmed on Thursday that a vote on this issue would be treated as a matter of conscience and would not be whipped.

Paterson became the first cabinet minister to air his opposition. In a letter to a constituent, recently published on the PoliticsHome website, he wrote: "Having considered this matter carefully, I am afraid that I have come to the decision not to support gay marriage."

Opposition to the plans within government has also been aired by Tim Loughton, the children's minister, who last week made the case for the issue of gay marriage to be a matter of personal conscience "rather than of party political line or institutionalised agenda".

He wrote on his website: "The prime minister has clearly set out his reasons for being in favour of gay marriage and I respect his right to do so. But, I particularly respect his acknowledgement that this should be a matter of personal beliefs and that Conservative MPs at least will be free to make up their own minds.

"As such, I have to say that my instinct is not to support these proposals and, as it stands, I intend to vote against measures to legalise gay marriage".

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Payments for home owners using solar panels to generate electricity are to be cut further, the government said on Thursday, which is set to be the hottest day of the year with widespread sunshine in the UK.

The feed-in tariff for solar photovoltaic panels fitted to existing homes will be cut by about a quarter, from 21p per kWh to 16p, and the length of payments reduced from 25 to 20 years. However, the Department of Energy and Climate Change said financial returns would still be around 6% for homeowners, down from the 7-10% when the scheme launched in 2010, as panel costs have fallen.

The changes take effect on 1 August, one month later than planned, after the government missed a legal deadline for making the changes on 1 July. Future tariff rates will also be assessed every three months and automatically cut or held depending on the number of panels installed in the last quarter, the government said.

The climate minister, Greg Barker, said: "The sector has been through a difficult time, adjusting to the reality of sharply falling costs, but the reforms we are introducing today provide a strong, sustainable foundation for growth for the solar sector. We can now look with confidence to a future for solar which will see it go from a small cottage industry, anticipated under the previous scheme, to playing a significant part in Britain's clean energy economy."

The fall in the incentives, which was expected, comes after a tumultuous six months for the solar power industry. The government lost three court cases after solar companies and Friends of the Earth challenged its rushed halving of the Fit payments late last year. New rules have also been brought in that mean homes must meet energy efficiency standards before becoming eligible for the scheme, and recent data shows installations fell 90% after the most recent subsidy cut.

But solar industry, consumer groups, and green campaigners welcomed the new changes for bringing clarity. Audrey Gallacher, director of energy at Consumer Focus, said: "Consumers need certainty on the returns they will receive, if they are to have the confidence to invest in this technology. So it is good news that the government has now shed the light on the final subsidy."

Jeremy Leggett, chairman at Solarcentury, said: "Though investor confidence will remain uncertain given the proposed three-monthly digressions, the majority of the government's policies may herald a new seriousness of intent on solar, and indicate that a meaningful solar industrial policy is now a real prospect for the UK."

The New York Times, citing an unidentified police source, has named the man as Pedro Hernandez. The newspaper said Hernandez was taken into custody late on Wednesday in Camden, New Jersey, and had been considered a possible suspect in the past.

Meanwhile the New York Post, also citing a law enforcement source, said the man had told police he had lured Etan with candy, stabbed him and then cut up the body and put it in plastic bags. It said Hernandez had worked at a small store in the Patz's neighbourhood at the time, before later moving to New Jersey.

The Post said Hernandez had told family members, and a "spiritual adviser", about once killing a child and one relative eventually contacted police in April after hearing about the new Soho dig.

Although Etan was formally declared dead in 2001, Manhattan district attorney Cyrus Vance re-opened the case in 2010 and investigators tore apart the basement in April looking for clothing and human remains after a cadaver-sniffing dog sensed something at the site.

The floor was in a basement once used as a workshop by a handyman, Othniel Miller, now 75, who had paid the boy to help him with chores. Miller was questioned by police but was not charged with a crime. Police later said the search found "no obvious human remains."

Long targeted as a suspect in the case was Jose Antonio Ramos, a friend of Patz's babysitter who was later convicted of child molestation in a separate case in Pennsylvania. He is due to be released from prison in November.

Ramos, whose girlfriend babysat Etan, was declared responsible for Etan's death in 2004 in a New York civil case brought by the Patz family.
Etan's parents, Stanley and Julie Patz, became outspoken advocates for missing children, bringing the issue to major national attention. Four years after their child went missing President Ronald Reagan declared 25 May – the day on which Etan disappeared – as national missing children's day.

Al-Ahram:

Mubarak's relative in the Nile Delta village of Kafr El-Meselha in Monufia governorate -- also the birthplace of the 84-year old ex-ruler -- told a visiting Ahram reporter that his extended family are all backing Shafiq in this week's presidential elections.

2.00pm ET/7pm BST: Ian Black has written an analysis of who would win possible general election matchups.

The contest that would be hardest to predict, Black writes, is Moussa vs. Abul Fotouh. Morsi vs. Shafiq "is the nightmare scenario because many people hate both men."

If it's Moussa vs. Morsi:

Moussa, the former Egyptian foreign minister, is seen as the leading "stability" candidate, who has managed to put some distance between himself and the Mubarak regime. Morsi, backed by the Muslim Brotherhood, commands the best organised political machine in the country. But in tactical voting in a second round, Moussa would win the support of the entire anti-Islamist camp – including those backing Ahmed Shafiq and Hamdeen Sabbahi in the first round. Many would do anything to keep the Brotherhood out of power.

1.51pm ET/6.51pm BST: The Twittersphere is filled with chatter about boycotting the runoff election next month if the "wrong" candidates end up making it through to the second round. Many voters vow for example that they will not particpate in a prospective contest between Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammed Morsi and Mubarak intimate Ahmed Shafiq, arguing that neither represents a way forward for the country (the fact that the Brotherhood was outlawed under Mubarak notwithstanding).

At least one very high-profile figure, meanwhile, has boycotted the election's first round. Nobel laureate Mohamed Elbaradei, who many thought would run for president himself after his vocal support for the revolution, told an audience in Vienna, where he is speaking on a panel about the Arab Spring, that he had not voted.

Mohamed ElBaradei in Vienna today said he didn't vote in election "because I do not believe there is a level playing field." (Reuters)

— Hala Gorani (@HalaGorani) May 24, 2012

Egyptian blogger and activist Tarek Nasr has written a widely circulated blog post explaining that he is boycotting the election because none of the candidates is a true revolutionary, the military regime is still in power and the vote, he says, is fixed:

Why are we suddenly realists? Toppling Hosni Mubarak and sending him and his cronies to jail was so far fetched pre #Jan25 I would suggest we could have never even dreamed of accomplishing it!
Why do we have to accept everything SCAF gives us as fact? Why?
When they present us with elections that are 100% flawed why do we have to agree to them and file it under "Democracy"?
When I have no clue what the powers of the president will be what am I voting for?
When a former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Mubarak's are running how can I be asked to vote and "accept the outcome"?

Reports of lackluster turnout persist, meanwhile, with most sources estimating 40-50 percent turnout – lower than the 75 percent turnout in some areas for the recent parliamentary elections.

1.16pm ET/6.16pm BST: This is Tom McCarthy in New York taking over live blog coverage of the election in Egypt. Just under two hours now until polls close.

I shivered. Sign says: "Don't sell your vote. The conscience of every honest Egyptian is the only way to save Egypt." twitter.com/Bassem_Sabry/s…

— Bassem Sabry (@Bassem_Sabry) May 24, 2012

5.34pm: Here's a brief summary of today's developments in the Egyptian presidential election:

• It has been a day of conflicting reports in terms of how the various candidates are faring.

• The two "old regime" candidates, Amr Moussa and Ahmed Shafiq, kept voters entertained with a public Twitter-and-TV spat in which Moussa called on Shafiq to withdraw from the contest.

• From a safe distance in Vienna, Nobel laureate and reform campaigner Mohamed ElBaradei said that who wins the election is less important than establishing "the basic common values" that Egyptians will live under.

• There have been some claims of irregularities – most of them attributed to supporters of Mohammed Mursi and Ahmed Shafiq.

4.55pm: Voting is due to end at 9pm (Egyptian time) today but there is speculation that it could resume again tomorrow.

Turnout seems to have been low today – though it's thought that many voters could be waiting for temperatures to cool a bit before heading to the polls. This might lead to last-minute overcrowding at the polling stations – hence the possibility of extending the election for an extra day.

4.41pm: More from Abdel-Rahman Hussein on the public spat between former foreign minister Amr Moussa and Ahmed Shafiq, both of whom are candidates:

The right of response has been excercised by Shafiq in a phone call to al-Arabiya TV in which he denied that he was withdrawing from the race and attacked Moussa for insinuating anything of the sort.

Things are bit clearer now. Earlier today, someone claiming to be from the Shafiq campaign stated that Moussa's chances were extremely low and that there were rumours of his withdrawal – part of the tactics initiated by campaigns vying for the same votes, in this case the "stability" votes that are going to either Shafiq or Moussa.

On al-Arabiya, Shafiq was gruff and irritable as usual, but the highlight of the interview was Shafiq saying he had no reason to withdraw, upon which the presenter asked him whether being pelted by shoes yesterday might be a possible reason.

Shafiq was none too pleased and the interview ended shortly after, with Shafiq saying that if he spent any longer on the phone he would break the campaigning ban.

4.33pm: More reports of irregularities. A supporter of Mohammed Mursi was seen distributing meat, sugar, beans, lentils and oil to voters today in Khuzam village (Qena governorate), according to the election monitoring organisation, Hurra Naziha Coalition.

The same group says a supporter of Ahmed Shafiq was arrested in Marsa Matrouh, on Egypt's Mediterranean coast, and accused of distributing money to voters, Egypt Independent reports.

In Densha (Qena governorate), the authorities prevented 15 women wearing the niqab (full-face veil) from voting after they refused to let female inspectors check their faces, Ahram Online says.

4.12pm: Rania al-Malky, former editor in chief of the now defunct Daily News Egypt, can't see how a run off with three candidates could be possible (see 2.47pm).

@ranialmalky @elfoulio @sarahussein Regular runoff is bet top 2 so run off can b bet 3 if 2 runners up have the exact number of votes

— ranialmalky (@ranialmalky) May 24, 2012

4.05pm: The family of Khaled Said has voted for Nasserist candidate Hamdeen Sabahy, Ahram Online reports from Alexandria.

Said's death in 2010 at the hands of the police became a rallying point for activists before and during the uprising against the Mubarak regime. One of the slogans adopted was "We are all Khaled Said".

Ahram Online quotes Said's mother explaining the family's electoral choice:

Sabahy can return the rights of martyrs and injured of the revolution. He also has a chance of winning. Sabbahi is neither from the old regime nor from the Brotherhood; this is an important step towards change.

It feels strange voting for a president without a constitution; we should have listened to ElBaradei, and had the constitution before presidential elections.

3.54pm: Al-Jazeera's exit poll (see 3.27pm) is creating excitement and scepticism.

That would be fun! @hackneylad: Jazeera exit poll predicts Morsi-Sabahi run-off - Morsi(25%), Sabahi(22%), Aboul-Fotouh (21%), Moussa (19%)

— ashraf khalil (@ashrafkhalil) May 24, 2012

If correct it would 13% to all the remaining candidates including Shafiq.

3.35pm: Births, marriages and deaths ... Following this morning's story about a woman going into labour at a polling station (and naming her baby son after candidate Shafiq), we now have a newly-wed couple heading to the polls before starting their married life.

More sadly, in Cairo's El-Zahar district a 72-year-old man died of a suspected heart attack while on his way to vote, Ahram Online reports.

3.27pm: An al-Jazeera Arabic poll of 60,000 people points to a run off between the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohammed Morsi and the leftist nationalist Hamdeen Sabahy.

But Abul Fotouh and Amr Moussa are very close behind.

The network's Jamal Elshayyal tweets:

According to @AJArabic poll of 60000 people across ‪#Egypt‬ @FjpartyOrg Morsi 25% Sanahi 22% @DrAboulfotoh 21% @amremoussa 19%

3.12pm: Bombshell moment, writes Abdel-Rahman Hussein in his latest email dispatch.

Amr Moussa is giving a live interview to Al-Arabiya now. He confirmed that he asked Shafiq to withdraw from the race because he represents "a reproduction of the past" and the antics of his campaign, which is full to the brim of old regime stalwarts.

Moussa also attacked Shafiq's campaign for spreading rumours about his campaign and his chances. Moussa is apparently repositioning himself in the race as a more revolutionary candidate compared to Shafiq, his own ties to the old regime notwithstanding.

"I don't see violations that would annul these elections," he also says.

The Egypt Independent has more on the Twitter ding-dong between the two camps.

3.04pm: For all their unreliability the polls before the election pointed to a surge in support for the Muslim Brotherhood's candidate, Mohammed Morsi, Issandr El Amrani points out on his Arabist blog.

He includes this chart of the trend in Ahram's polling.

Amrani games out the likely run-off outcomes:

• Moussa v. Morsi (Moussa probably favored to win)
• Moussa v. Shafiq (Moussa wins big)
• Shafiq v. Morsi (Morsi favored but who knows, potential rigging and large-scale boycott)

Less likely are:

• Morsi v. Abul Fotouh (Aboul Fotouh wins in a landslide)
• Moussa v. Abul Fotouh (Abul Fotouh wins, unless MB does unthinkable and strikes a deal with Moussa as some speculate)

He concludes:

I do get the feeling that Morsi is poised to dominate in the first round only to lose in most situations in the second. We'll find out soon enough if I'm right.

2.49pm: Why are Egypt's opinion polls so unreliable? Ashraf Khalil's answers will do nothing to quell conspiracy theories about the vote. Writing in Foreign Policy he says:

The infant Egyptian electoral polling industry isn't just contending with obstacles of technical sophistication and voter schizophrenia; it's also partially constrained by government interference. One of the under-reported aspects of Egypt's new polling craze is the quiet but crucial role played in the process by a relatively obscure government agency: The Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics, or Capmas - a wing of the Ministry of Planning, run by an Army general - vets all potential polling questions and has the right to ban prospective pollsters from asking certain questions ...

None of the pollsters interviewed for this article would comment formally on Capmas's role for fear of jeopardizing a crucial relationship. But the red lines seem to involve sensitive questions regarding perception of religion, the army, or the security services. Examples of questions banned by the Capma censors include asking how many times per day a respondent prayed, whether they had ever had any dealings with the police, and what they thought of US aid to the Egyptian military.

All in all, it's easy to feel a twinge of sympathy for those tasked with gauging the political winds in Egypt. This promises to be one of the most intensely scrutinized and dissected national votes in Egyptian history. And it's still an absolute black box.

2.47pm: A run-off with three candidates rather than two? We've just had this note from Abdel-Rahman Hussein:

Here's an interesting tidbit from member of the presidential committee Hatem Begato. There could actually be a run-off comprising three candidates in specific instances.

For that to happen though, the top three would have to each get roughly a third of the votes, which doesn't seem too likely.

Additionally, this scenario may occur if the second and third placed candidates have the exact number of votes. Even more unlikely.

2.41pm: Following Amr Moussa's statement on Twitter that he is "waiting for the withdrawal of General Ahmed Shafiq" (see 1.30pm), Shafiq has resorted to Twitter to hit back. He says there is a "lack of truth" in the rumour about the withdrawal of one of the candidates (but without naming himself as the candidate concerned).

أكد الفريق احمد شفيق عن عدم صحه ما يشاع عن تنازله لأحد المرشحين وأكد ايضاً علي ثقته في الشعب المصري وانه لن يعطي صوته ألا لمن يستحق

— الفريق احمد شفيق(@GeneralShafiq) May 24, 2012

2.24pm: The political fight is becoming all too real in some areas as rival electoral teams come to blows in polling stations.

Ahram Online says that a member of the campaign of leftist/Nationalist Hamdeen Sabahy attacked a member of the team of the young reformist candidate Khaled Ali. They were rowing over electoral violations.

And in the Nile Delta one of Ahmed Shafiq's people slapped a member of Abdel Moneim Abul Fotuoh team, according to the Egypt Independent.

2.15pm: One very determined voter ...

PHOTO of a patient who came by ambulance to vote #Egypt #EgyPresElex twitter.com/FouadMD/status…

— Fouad, MD (@FouadMD) May 24, 2012

2.11pm: A snapshot from a polling station in Arish, North Sinai governorate, via Egypt Independent:

Ahmad Mohamed Sabry [representing Shafiq's campaign] sits in a corner of the station alongside other candidate representatives.

"Everything has been normal so far. There are a lot of elderly who come to cast their vote and many of them are illiterate," Sabry said.

"But as you saw, the judge is the only person who helps them out by taking them to the side, asking them who they want to vote for and showing them on the list where their candidate is. The voters are the ones who cast their ballot even if they don't read and write."

A very old woman enters the polling station and is helped by the judge to the ballots. The judge asks her: "Who do you want to give your vote to, mother?"

"Shafiq," she says. And then he shows her and she casts her ballot.

1.58pm: Nobel laureate and reform campaigner Mohamed ElBaradei has told the Associated Press that who wins the election is less important than establishing national unity.

Whether Egyptians choose a reformist, an Islamist or a pragmatic leader, the key is to agree "on the basic common values that they're going to live under" – and for that to happen, basic needs such as food and health care in Egypt have to be met better.

"We have a long way to go," he said in Vienna before taking part in a panel discussing the Arab Spring.

1.49pm: Former US president Jimmy Carter has expressed frustration with the Egyptian authorities after electoral monitors from his Carter Centre were limited to 30 minutes per polling station.

Speaking to CNN, he said: "We don't like it but we will do the best we can. We have never accepted this restriction before ... We don't like it but we had to comply or refuse to participate. I chose to participate."

1.30pm: We might be seeing some campaign trickery afoot as the vote gets closer, Abdel-Rahman Hussein says in an email from Cairo.

Various exit polls released by the campaigns are placing their candidates in a favourable light. And now, a statement by Amr Moussa released by the Moussa campaign Twitter feed in which he said, "I am waiting for the withdrawal of General Ahmed Shafiq" – an insinuation that Shafiq will pull out in favour of Moussa.

تصريح عمرو موسى لرصد: أنا في إنتظار تنازل الفريق أحمد شفيق

— Amre Moussa Campaign (@moussacampaign) May 24, 2012

Already that piece of news has reverberated somewhat and some believe that Shafiq is about to do so. Only took twenty four hours for campaigns to get ... erm ... "sophisticated".

1.18pm: Syria: While attention is focused on Egypt, we probably ought to note a less interesting event in Syria: the first meeting of the newly-elected parliament. Members were sworn in today (with the exception of a couple who arrived late and didn't bother to take the oath, according to Shakeeb al-Jabri who has been following the proceedings).

The MPs have now elected a Baathist speaker and deputy speaker:

Mohammad Jihad AlLahham is the new Speaker of Parliament, elected with 225 of 250 votes. #NewSyria #Syria

— Shakeeb Al-Jabri (@LeShaque) May 24, 2012

We had been expecting President Assad to give one of his lengthy speeches to parliament, but it now seems that may not happen today.

1.02pm: Finding your name on the voters' lists can be a bit tricky if you are called Mohammed.

500 of the 3000 names here are 'Mohammad' so finding yours can be a little hard #Egypt twitter.com/pdanahar/statu…

— Paul Danahar (@pdanahar) May 24, 2012

12.13pm: The campaigns of both Mohammed Morsi and Abdel Moneim Abul Fotouh claim their men are heading for the run-off, while Amr Moussa's people are looking glum, says Jack Shenker in an audio update from Cairo.

But Jack warns of the perils of reading too much into what the campaigns are saying at this stage.

First he relates what the tea leaves are currently showing:

Mohammed Morsi people's are saying that so far he is winning. We don't know what they are basing that on, apart from the fact that they do have probably the most organised get-out-the-vote system. But that does not mean they are necessarily keen to tell us the truth. They are currently saying that Morsi has the largest share of the vote, followed by Abdel Moneim Abul Fotouh. Abul Fotouh's camp have also suggested that.

Amr Moussa's camp refuses to comment on its own internal polling ... people from the Moussa campaign are coming across as quite depressed and quite worried.

Now the health warning:

All of these estimates about how well the campaigns are doing - we have got to take them with a pinch of salt. First, we've still got seven or eight hours of polling today. Once the sun goes down turnout will pick up and we don't know which way it will fall. And the campaigns all have a vested interest in projecting the result one way or another. Amr Moussa, for example yesterday within the first couple of hours, put out a statement saying the Brotherhood were winning but that he was second, which was seen as a very tactical move to scare his base into thinking that the Brotherhood were about to storm to victory, and encourage them to come out and back Moussa in large numbers to prevent that happening.

We may not have to wait quite as long as we thought to find out which campaign is right. Counting will begin half an hour after polling closes, which could mean a result by Saturday or even Friday, Jack says.

As Jack mentioned here's the Shafiq-supporting barber, who like many sees no contradiction between backing the revolution and the former prime minister.

Yusuf was born on Feb 11 last year, the day Mubarak fell. "Huwwa ibn al-sawra," beamed his dad - who voted Shafiq... twitter.com/hackneylad/sta…

— Jack Shenker (@hackneylad) May 23, 2012

11.43am: Clearer footage has emerged of Ahmed Shafiq being pelted with shoes outside a polling station in Cairo.

The former prime minister still appears to be polling well, according to the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party.

FJP representative in Dar al-Salaam told the Egyptian Independent: "The preliminary sorting of Wednesday was in favour of Mohammed Morsi and Ahmed Shafiq".

11.01am: The Egyptian comic actor Adel Iman, who starred in the film version of The Yacoubian Building and was jailed for insulting Islam earlier this year, has cast his vote according to AFP's Jailan Zayan.

Arab mega star #AdelImam voting in Giza and talking to #AFP. #egypreselex twitter.com/jazayan/status…

— Jailan Zayan (@jazayan) May 24, 2012

10.45am: With polling stations operating separate queues for men and women, the Egyptian Centre for Women's Rights (ECWR) has been keeping an eye open for irregularities on the female side. Women voters are aware of their rights, it says, and in some cases they have taken "positive steps" to halt violations.

Campaigning is officially banned now that voting is under way but the ECWR reports a number of instances of illicit campaigning – most of them by supporters of Mohammed Mursi and Ahmed Shafiq. Here are some examples:

• In Abdeen district (Cairo governorate) in front of El Wihda El Wataniya School, the electoral silence law was violated when the female supporters of candidate Ahmed Shafiq distributed publications.

• A severe violation took place when the mosques' microphones invited voters to vote for candidate Ahmed Shafiq in Borg Nour El Arab village – Sinbillaween – Daqahliya governorate.

• Muslim brotherhood women tried to convince the female voters that you will either vote for Dr Mursi or you will be an enemy of Islam in front of the "El Maahad El Namoozagy"/El Darasat district in Mansoura.

Among other reported irregularities:

• In El Giza governorate, El Tarbiya El Fikrya school's polling centre voting was suspended, as there were disputes between the central security forces and female voters.

• In a severe violation of the law, monaqaba women were allowed to vote in polling stations number 5 and 6 in El Thanawya Scondary school for girls and Arab El Attawlah in Sohag governorate without checking their faces before letting them vote.

• In El Manyal preparatory school for girls, one of the female voters found out that her dead husband is on the voters' list.

10.21am: The presidential electoral commission has announced that it will hold a press conference tonight at 8pm central Cairo.

The results of the poll are not expected until next Tuesday. Reliable exit polls are not likely, but there may be indications from campaign organisers on how they think their respective candidates have fared.

Straws in the wind from day one point to success for the Muslim Brotherhood's candidate Mohammed Morsi.

Egyptian blogger Mostafa El-Hoshy has a post, with many health warnings, on the earlier exit polls ("very loose use of the word").

Here's the key sentence: "The early releases could be politically motivated (i.e. intended to influence the vote)."

10.16am: A female member of Ahmed Shafiq's campaign team went into labour yesterday while observing at a polling station in Minya, Ahram Online reports.

Kamelia El-Sayed Ibrahim gave birth to a boy and named him Shafiq in honour of the would-be president.

10.07am: The election is exposing generational divides within families, according to blogger Big Pharaoh

An interesting thing about the #EgyElections is that parents and their children vote for completely different candidates.

— The Big Pharaoh (@TheBigPharaoh) May 24, 2012

Egyptians have taken to Twitter to express frustration at their parents' choices for president.

@MohAbdElHamid my mom n dad n grandmother voted for shafiq 3aaaaaaaa

— Maggie Osama (@maggieosama) May 24, 2012

@MohAbdElHamid Mom voted for Moussa. Moms of two other friends voted for Moussa two.

— Mohamed Abdelfattah (@mfatta7) May 24, 2012

@maggieosama @shadysamir My dad is actually trying to convince me with Shafiq. Can someone please come kill me or kill him.

— Mohamed Abd El-Hamid (@MohAbdElHamid) May 24, 2012

9.57am: Upbeat voters feature in cheery Pinterest gallery by photojournalist Matthew Cassell.

Hannan Feteilha, 48, says:

I feel comfortable and happy that for the first time my vote is important. God willing, everything will be okay. I'm very optimistic. I voted for Amr Moussa.

Riham Mustafa, 20 says:

I thank God for the opportunity [to elect our president]. I thought the day would never come. I'm optimistic. I voted for Abul Fotouh but I'll be happy with the majority. We all need to work to make Egypt better.

9.23am: the candidacy of former prime minister Ahmed Shafiq exposes deep divisions in Egypt, Ian Black says in an audio reports from Cairo.

People who support [Shafiq], and he does seem to be getting a lot of votes - although that is anecdotal - say he is a capable man with a track record of achieving things with a military background, and he's the sort of person we need to bring stability to this country across a broad front. His critics, and they are very vociferous, say this is the worst example of somebody who is a remnant - a feloul - of the old regime. And how could it be that after all the efforts and sacrifices of the revolution that Egypt could end up being ruled by somebody who remains so against it? People are very angry on this point.

Revolutionaries would rather vote for Islamist candidates, despite profound differences with them, than accept Ahmed Shafiq, Ian says.

If the run off turned out to between Shafiq, from the old regime, and Morsi, from the Muslim Brotherhood, you would have the most polarised possible confrontation that would reflect the deepest divisions in Egyptian society ... It is extraordinary that after everything that happened in the revolution there are still millions of people who hark back to the sort of stability that they associate to the Mubarak era. But there are vast numbers who want to see something new and different ...

A run off between Shafiq and Morsi would force people who supported the revolution to make very difficult decisions. Some of the people I spoke to yesterday, who were revolutionaries and liberals and hostile to Islamists, said they would rather vote for a Muslim Brotherhood president than someone who is such a blatant representative of the old regime.

8.31am: (all times BST) Welcome to Middle East Live. Polls have just opened for the second day of voting in Egypt's historic presidential elections. Once again we will be focusing most of our attention on the vote. Yesterday Egypt witnessed a taste of the kind of convulsions that many fear if the establishment candidate Ahmed Shafiq makes it to the run off - now considered a distinct possibility.

Here's a round of the latest developments:

Egypt

• Ahmed Shafiq, Hosni Mubarak's last prime minister, was attacked outside a polling station in Cairo, after casting his vote.

Protesters were filmed trying to beat Shafiq, in some cases with their shoes, as he was ushered into his car, Storyful reports.

• The Egyptian blogger Zeinobia says the voting experience was bitter sweet, because of her concerns about the likely outcome. After voting for Abdel Moneim Abul Fotouh she wrote:

I should be happy and proud , well I am honest person and since early mornings the news coming from around the country showed a rise for Ahmed Shafiq and Mohamed Morsi [the Muslim Brotherhood's candidate] especially. I want the best for my country and I am terrified from the results. I do not want Ahmed Shafiq or Mohamed Morsi to become the first democratically elected in the country. It is too much for me.

She also compiled this Flickr slide show of the voting experience.

• The candidates least favoured by revolutionaries appear to be winning, according to Jadaliyya.

Informed sources, however, say the runoff is likely to feature two out of three frontrunners, namely, Morsi, [Amr] Moussa [former foreign minister] or Shafiq.

"Most probably, it will be Morsi and Moussa [in the runoff round], but those who underestimate Shafiq – and the volume and nature of support he is getting – could be in for a big surprise," said one official.

Recent reports, the same official said, put the Brotherhood's Mursi at the head of the race.

• Turnout was initially low but picked up by the evening when polling was extended to cope with the voting queues. Voters and election monitors said they were encouraged by the strong turnout, the enthusiasm among those casting ballots and the orderly way in which polling stations were run, the Washington Post reports.

• The state worked hard to try to ensure that the first day of voting went relatively smoothly and and fairly.

Security was tight, with machine-gun toting soldiers, red-bereted military policemen, Amn al-Markazi (central security services) officers in black uniforms and regular policemen in white and gold braid all deployed on the streets.

Judges overseeing polling stations were flown to remote areas by military aircraft. Monitors – including the former US president Jimmy Carter and his team – were on hand to ensure the process was free and fair, though Egyptian observers said some voters admitted to receiving cash and food gifts from the Shafiq and Morsi camps.

"It looks quite good," pronounced Radwa Darwish, of the Shayfeenkom election watchdog.

• Egypt's next president, whoever it turns out to be, will be in the strange position of not knowing what powers he will have, writes Ian Black.

Different presidential candidates would likely have different approaches. Amr Moussa, for example, has no natural power base and would therefore probably seek to reinforce the authority of the presidency – against the trend of revolutionary demands. But an Islamist winner would clearly find it easier to work with MPs. Overall expectations of change, many fear, could be dangerously high.

• The military probably does not need to engage in widespread rigging or fraud to remain autonomous and immune from civilian prosecution, says Elijah Zarwan, senior policy fellow for the European Council on Foreign Relations, writing in Foreign Policy magazine.

A large segment of the population was never sold on the "revolution" -- as it is almost universally called here -- in the first place. Afraid of chaos, economic hardship, bloodshed, and religious zealotry, they sat out the 18-day uprising, watching state television. They have found little in the events of the past year to allay their fears. A few had a stake in the status quo. Far more, raised in an educational system that rewards verbatim regurgitation of authoritative sources, take their opinions from the broadcasts and pages of the state media. Moreover, as one senior Egyptian politician recently observed, an overlapping segment of the population can easily support the Islamists and the military.

Syria

• The UN's security council has been left redundant by its failure to take action against Bashar al-Assad's brutal crackdown against dissent in Syria, according to Amnesty International in its global human rights report. It criticised Russia and China for using their leverage on the council "to forestall effective action on Syria". Salil Shetty, secretary general of Amnesty said:

There is a clear and compelling case for the situation in Syria to be referred to the International Criminal Court for investigation of crimes against humanity. The determination of some UN Security Council members to shield Syria at any cost leaves accountability for these crimes elusive and is a betrayal of the Syrian people.

• The opposition Syrian National Council has accepted the resignation of its controversial leader Burhan Ghalioun, (pictured) the Telegraph reports. In a statement issued at the end of a two-day meeting in Istanbul, the SNC said it had "decided to accept the resignation and to ask the council president to pursue his work until the election of a new president at a meeting on 9-10 June".